Hogue Report: Post-Stanford

After last week’s dismal play at Washington, I said “that same play would have resulted in a loss against half of the teams on the Trojans’ schedule.”  Well, the Trojans came out and played worse, and lost to a Stanford team that is one of the bottom three teams USC will play all year.

The newspapers and websites are all giving Stanford a lot of credit.  For me, while Stanford deserves some praise for their effort and their heart, they are a bad football team.  The Trojans gave this game away – period.  Yardage totals:  USC – 459, Stanford – 235.  Turnovers:  USC – 5, Stanford – 1.  Dropped passes.  Failure to score from the one yard line.  Add in a blocked extra point and the result is a 1-point loss for USC at home.

In my mind, this loss sits squarely on the Trojans’ offensive line (painful for me to say) and on John David Booty’s negative plays.  Let me give you some specifics:

1.    Offensive Line:  The Trojans went into the season without a lot of depth on the offensive line.  They started the year with four clear starters (Baker, Beyers, Spanos and Rachal) and the hopes that someone would emerge at right tackle.  Drew Radovich is now fairly solid at tackle, and Kristofer O’Dowd was a nice surprise being able to step in at center, and that gave the Trojans six linemen that can play.  The problem is, when USC gets beyond that, there are major question marks.

Pat Ruel – one of the great line coaches in the game – allowed me to sit in and watch film with the O-line during summer camp, and I remember being amazed that a few of the linemen who have been in the program for a few years still don’t have a clue in terms of assignments and line calls.  I remember thinking at the time, “if these guys have to play, we are in trouble.”  Well – these guys are playing and we are in trouble.

This week at practice, they opened up the right guard spot to competition between Zach Heberer and Alatini Malu .  There is a saying – “if you have two quarterbacks, it means you don’t have one” – and that statement now applies to the right guard position for the Trojans.  Both men played Saturday against Stanford as the coaches are trying to find someone who can (1) do what he’s supposed to, and (2) do it well enough to give the offense a chance.  

Our failures to run the ball (2.5 yard per carry and a miserable effort to try to score before halftime), and our poor pass protection – especially late in the game – are squarely the responsibility of this offensive line.  If anyone taped the game, go watch the last series after Stanford took the lead and USC was trying to move the ball for a winning field goal.  On the first two plays, USC’s right side of the line failed to slide out and block the two defenders on the defensive line of scrimmage, and instead, double-teamed the end and left a walk-up linebacker unblocked rushing off of the edge.  TWO PLAYS IN A ROW!  Stanford rushed four, and USC only blocked three of them with their five offensive linemen.  I was ready for someone to cart Pat Ruel off the field after the game, knowing his blood had to be boiling.
 
To make matters even scarier, Matt Spanos had to leave the game briefly in the second-half after almost losing his finger.  His pinky was caught in a defender’s face-mask, almost ripped off, and he was on the sideline and had it literally sewed back together.  The man is a warrior, and came back in to finish the game, but for a period of time, we had Jeff Beyers at center at both Heberer and Malu were in the game as the two guards.

There is no doubt that the offensive line will be an area of focus this week, and while it may not happen, it wouldn’t surprise me if we actually saw some position changes, such as Radovich back to guard and Charles Brown at tackle.  And when O’Dowd comes back, you may see Spanos and O’Dowd both in the game along the line.  Whatever happens, Chilo Rachal can’t come back soon enough.  

2.    John David Booty:  After last week’s column, where for the first time I questioned JD’s progress a bit, I got a lot of feedback with many Trojan fans thinking I was being overly negative.  After Saturday’s game, I feel even more strongly.  JD is a good college quarterback who – when playing with great receivers and behind a line that gives you great protection – can put up some amazing numbers.  But when those attributes aren’t there, I think JD is simply a good quarterback, who needs to manage the game, avoid mistakes, and allow USC’s defense to win games.  Unfortunately, while JD had some nice plays, his negative plays killed USC’s hopes on Saturday night.  Four interceptions – one of which was returned for a touchdown, and another which gave Stanford a short field for the go-ahead score, were more than the Trojans could overcome.

The bigger question for this week is this: does JD give the Trojans the best chance to win given the problems on the offensive line?  I think JD continually shows that – when rattled with pressure – his decisions are not good, and with his limited mobility, he needs more help than this offense can currently give him.  He is not a guy who can play pitch and catch with receivers when things break down and they aren’t where they are supposed to be.  So while JD may be the best QB for us behind our normal, healthy offensive line and a strong running game, the mobility of a Mark Sanchez at this point – I believe – gives the Trojans an offensive difference it sorely needs.  And while it would be hard for Pete Carroll to bench JD, the injury he suffered to his throwing hand may give them the ability to put Sanchez on the field for the next few weeks while the offensive line gets healthy and see how things unfold.

3.    Why do I not blame the defense?  Don’t get me wrong, I am sure Pete Carroll and Nick Holt are furious today that they allowed the final Stanford scoring drive, including the big conversion by Stanford on 4th and 20.  But make no mistake, this Trojan defense played well enough to win.  At USC, the defense shouldn’t have to overcome its own offense.

What’s ahead?  Consider this:  the Stanford defensive strategy resembled Pete Carroll’s defensive philosophy.  Stanford committed its linebackers to stuffing the run – and for the most part, they did.  They played a two-deep zone in coverage and basically forced the Trojans to try to move the ball down the field with a short passing game… and time and time again, the Trojans couldn’t put long drives together.  The Trojans were successful in scoring on a few big plays (Ronald Johnson, Fred Davis), but outside of those two touchdowns, managed just 9 points.  So get ready, as other teams will likely follow suit, and will try to make this USC team beat them by passing the ball and putting long drives together.  

Is the season over?  Not a chance.  I remember last year after USC lost to Oregon State, and on the Trojans Live post-game show, Petros Papadakis made the claim that USC’s shot at a national championship was over.  I disagreed on air, and rightly so, as the Trojans were back in the #2 spot in the country before the end of the season and controlled their fate going into the UCLA game.  The same could happen this season.  This USC team is incredibly talented with an amazingly good defense.  If they can get healthy, they can beat anyone… and should.  USC sits at #10 in the AP poll after the game and #7 in the Coaches Poll, but if the Trojans run the table, they should be the top-ranked one-loss team in the country, as they will have beaten #2Cal, #9 Oregon, and #14 ASU – all on the road.  To me, the big questions are #3 Ohio State and #4 Boston College – both of whom play in lousy conferences with easy non-conference schedules and have a shot at going undefeated.  But it’s college football – something is bound to happen.   So while the Trojans gave up the chance to control their own destiny, they still have the chance to be in the thick of the National Championship race.

For now, the Trojans simply have to worry about themselves, get better, get healthy, and take one-game-at-a-time.  There are a lot of questions (especially at O-line and QB), which will make this week very fun to watch.  They have more work to do than they’ve had to do in a long time, but something in me thinks this USC team will be able to go from being “crushed” to being “challenged” - - and may end up being energized by all of this in a way we haven’t seen this season.

Onto Arizona.